Who would have thought that a simple 1973 Seiko would now sell for more than an Omega Speedmaster from the same era? Vintage Japanese watchmaking is shaking up all the codes of the secondary market with performances that defy all logic.
A Toyota Corolla now worth the price of a Ferrari. This is exactly what has happened in the vintage watch market over the past twelve years. While collectors were fighting over Rolexes and Patek Philippes, a silent revolution was brewing in the shadows: vintage Seikos were literally exploding in value.
+1000% in twelve years. Some references have seen their prices multiply tenfold. Others, considered “Japanese scrap metal” in 2013, are now fetching top dollar at international auctions. The “Pogue” space watch, the “Willard” from Vietnam, the revolutionary Astron… These names may not mean anything to you, but they are shaking up the watch market.
How do watches sold for €50 fifteen years ago now reach €5000? What are the real drivers of this meteoric rise? And above all: what are the 30 references that are currently outperforming all competition?
Welcome to the fascinating world where Japanese watchmaking is rewriting history.
Sommaire
Model Selection Methodology
To create this index, a rigorous methodology was followed. First, we defined the analysis period from 2013 to 2025, in order to cover more than a decade of transactions on the collector’s market. Data sources include both online marketplaces and auction results:
- Yahoo!オークション (Yahoo! Auctions Japan) – A key indicator for pricing in the Japanese domestic market (JDM), where Seiko is a prized national brand. Actual auction data helped us estimate the entry prices in 2013 for many models тогда still considered “ordinary” in Japan.
- Chrono24 – The global watch sales platform provided international market prices, notably the median values observed in 2025 for our models. Chrono24 offers insight into supply and demand prices in a broader market than Japan.
- WatchCharts – This aggregator provided performance indices and price history where available, confirming upward (or downward) trends over the period. WatchCharts also offers a “Liquidity Score” which inspired our own liquidity rating (see below).
- Auction Results (Phillips, Sotheby’s, etc.) – For the most exceptional pieces, we consulted international auction results. For example, the record sale of a unique Grand Seiko in late 2022 or the private sale of the 1969 Astron from the Deutsches Uhrenmuseum. These one-off events shed light on the upper range of valuations.
From these sources, we identified a shortlist of about fifty vintage Seiko models that showed above-average performance in the collector’s watch market. By this, we mean a notable increase in their value on the secondary market between 2013 and 2025, often expressed as CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate). We then refined the list to 30 distinct references, ensuring representation of different eras (1960s, 70s, 80s), families (dive watches, chronographs, high-end dress watches, precision quartz, etc.), and grouped them into three current value brackets:
- Watches with a median value in 2025 of ≤ ¥200,000 (less than €3,000) – “accessible” segment.
- Watches from ¥200,001 to ¥500,000 (approximately €3,000 to €7,500) – intermediate segment of collector’s value pieces.
- Watches > ¥500,000 (> €7,500) – high-end segment of the rarest and most valuable pieces.
For each selected watch, we provide a technical sheet including the caliber, case diameter, launch year, and watch family (chronograph, diver, Grand Seiko, etc.). We also indicate an estimate of its entry price in 2013, its median price observed in 2025, the 12-year CAGR, as well as a Liquidity Index from 1 (very rare for sale, narrow market) to 5 (very liquid, frequent trades). This index is our in-house adaptation combining the model’s initial production and its frequency of appearance on today’s markets. As a reminder, this is a ranking by relative value performance, without aesthetic or technical judgment – although you will see, these vintage Seikos often have much more than just financial value to tell…
≤ ¥200,000 / < €3,000: 10 Still Affordable Vintage Treasures
We start at the bottom of the value chart – and perhaps at the top of the podium in terms of relative progression! This first bracket groups ten watches that, in 2025, are valued актуальны around a few hundred to a few thousand euros, while having experienced notable value multiplications since 2013. These are often former “tool watches” produced in large quantities – sports watches, military watches, dive watches – once obstáculos, and whose prices have exploded thanks to a cocktail of storytelling, collector influence, and a certain fashion effect. Their advantage is that they remain below the symbolic €3,000 mark, retaining a certain appeal for new collectors камень the hunt for their first vintage Seiko gem. Their potential downside is variable liquidity: while some sell like hotcakes, others require finding the discerning enthusiast. Let’s discover them without further ado.
Seiko 6139-6002 “Pogue”
Caliber 6139 – Diameter 40mm – Year 1969 – Automatic Chronograph (Seiko 5 Speed-Timer)
It’s impossible not to start with the famous Seiko 6139 “Pogue” chronograph. It’s one of the world’s first automatic chronograph watches (1969) and the very first to be worn in space by an American astronaut, Colonel William Pogue, during Skylab in 1973. Its bright yellow dial and Pepsi bezel make it a visual icon of the seventies. In 2013, an example traded for around ¥15,000 (barely €120!) on Yahoo! Auctions Japan or eBay. This watch, produced in large series, was then considered банальным. But growing interest in vintage chronographs and the “Spacewatch” effect caused its demand to explode. In 2025, expect to pay around ¥100,000 (~€650) for a 6139-6002 in good condition, representing a CAGR of about 14% over 12 years. That’s considerable! Its Liquidity Index is 5/5: the Pogue sells very easily, buoyed by a strong fan community. Who would have thought that a simple 1973 Seiko would be worth more than an Omega Speedmaster from the same era just 10 years ago? Today, its success is unwavering.
Seiko 6138-0040 “Bullhead”
Caliber 6138 – Diameter 44mm – Year 1973 – Automatic Chronograph
Another legendary Seiko chronograph, the Bullhead 6138-0040 gets its nickname from its shape: its two raised crowns/pushers at 12 o’clock give it the appearance of a bull’s head. Produced from 1973 to 1979, this watch with a brown dial and “golden eye” sub-dials languished around €100 on the second-hand market for a long time (¥10,000 in 2013). It was seen as a somewhat dated curiosity, despite its robust automatic movement. But the vintage chronograph trend and its very “seventies” look changed the game. In 2025, a complete Bullhead exceeds ¥80,000 (~€560). That’s a CAGR of about 18%. Its Liquidity Index is 4/5: many examples are in circulation (Seiko produced quite a few) but demand keeps up, especially in Japan where JDM “Speed-Timer” variants signed in kanji are even more sought-after. It’s worth mentioning that a Panda version (white dial, ref. 6138-0040 WP) exists and also trades in these waters. In short, the Bullhead has managed to avenge itself on the initial indifference of collectors.
Seiko 6138-8020 “Panda”
Caliber 6138 – Diameter 42mm – Year 1975 – Automatic Chronograph
Staying with 1970s chronographs brings us to the highly coveted 6138-8020, nicknamed “Panda” due to its silver dial with two black sub-dials reminiscent of the Chinese bear’s face. This bicompax chronograph, released around 1974-1975, was relatively expensive for a Seiko at the time (caliber 6138 with column wheel, 21 jewels, meticulous manufacturing). It was relatively scarce outside Japan, which kept its price low until the 2010s – one could be found for around ¥20,000 (€150) in 2013 on forums. With the rising value of Seiko chronographs, the Panda 6138-8020 has literally quadrupled in value: a fine example now trades for around ¥120,000 (≈ €840). The CAGR approaches 16%. The Liquidity Index is 4/5: they are regularly found via specialized dealers, and Western collectors snap up this model for its very affordable “Paul Newman” look. It’s worth noting that a good portion of the increase occurred between 2015 and 2020, before a recent stabilization in value.
Seiko 6309-7040 “Turtle”
Caliber 6309 – Diameter 45mm – Year 1976 – 150m Diver’s Watch (Seiko Diver’s)
Now for diving with the popular Seiko Turtle 6309. Produced from 1976 to 1988, it’s the worthy successor to the first Seiko dive watches (62MAS and 6105), with an asymmetrical cushion case nicknamed “Turtle” for its shell-like shape. For a long time, the 6309 (especially the 7040/7049 version without kanji date) was found obstáculos at the bottom of drawers. In 2013, you could get this robust 150m diver for ¥8,000 (barely €60!), often with a scratched crystal and a non-original bracelet. But the craze for Seiko divers changed the game: Seiko reissued the Turtle in a modern version (Prospex SRP777), which shone a spotlight on its ancestor. As a result, the vintage model saw its value climb to around ¥50,000 to ¥60,000 today (€400-500). We’re talking about a CAGR close to 17%. The Liquidity Index is 5/5 because a huge number are seen on eBay and aкомпании, sometimes modified, sometimes in perfect original condition (the latter selling for much more). Its status as part of the “holy trinity” of Seiko dive watches (alongside the 62MAS and 6105) guarantees sustained interest.
Seiko 6117-6400 “World Time”
Caliber 6117 – Diameter 38mm – Year 1968 – Automatic GMT (Navigator Timer)
Less known to the general public, the Seiko World Time 6117 is a handsome traveler’s watch featuring a movable bezel with the time zones of major cities. Released in 1968, following a 1964 Tokyo model, it attracted little interest 10 years ago: for ¥5,000 (€40) one could find them in average condition on Yahoo! Japan. Since then, its vintage charm and the “GMT watch” trend have given it a new lease on life. Perfect for a globetrotter look, it now averages ¥40,000 (~€280). CAGR ~19%, one of the highest in the selection. Its Liquidity Index is 3/5: fairly common in Japan, a bit less so in the West, you sometimes have to search for it. But as its price remains reasonable, many young collectors are discovering it as an entry point into vintage. Its relatively low volume (production for only a few years) may support future appreciation.
Seiko H558-5000 “Arnie”
Caliber H558 (quartz ana-digi) – Diameter 45mm – Year 1982 – Hybrid Diver’s Watch (Diver’s 150m)
If the movie Predator rings a bell, you may have already seen the Seiko “Arnie” H558 on Arnold Schwarzenegger’s muscular wrist. This hybrid dive watch (analog + digital) from the 80s, with its large black case and digital display, has achieved cult status among “tactical” watch enthusiasts. In 2013, paradoxically, it was worth almost nothing: ¥10,000 (~€80) was enough for a used H558, as quartz watches from that era were shunned. But the nostalgia effect, plus the rarity of examples in good working order (electronics age poorly), sent prices население. In 2025, transactions are observed around ¥60,000 (≈ €420). The CAGR is around 16%. Liquidity 4/5 because demand is strong, especially in the USA, and Seiko even released a modern reissue (SNJ025) boosting interest in the original. However, be warned: a vintage Arnie often requires an electronic overhaul, which can deter some buyers – we’ll come back to this in the Risks section.
Look for the Seiko H558-5000 “Arnie” on Catawiki (where rare models and exceptional auctions meet)
Seiko 7A28-7000 “Ripley”
Caliber 7A28 (analog quartz) – Diameter 42mm – Year 1983 – Quartz Chronograph
Let’s stay in cinema with the Seiko “Ripley” 7A28-7000, designed by Italian designer Giorgetto Giugiaro. It’s the futuristic watch worn by Sigourney Weaver in Aliens (1986), recognizable by its asymmetrical design and protruding buttons. For a long time, collectors swore only by mechanical watches and snubbed early quartz chronographs. Thus, around 2010-2013, a 7A28 “Ripley” could be found for ¥15,000 (~€120) without too much difficulty. Then the tide turned: its historical importance (first mass-produced analog quartz chronograph in 1983), its bold design, and the fetishism surrounding Alien caused its value to explode. Now expect to pay ¥120,000 (€800-900) for a complete example with its original bracelet. CAGR close to 19%. The Liquidity Index is 3/5 as the number of examples in circulation is limited (many were mistreated or lost). This spectacular rise proves that even a quartz Seiko can become a star of the collector’s market, provided it has style and a story.
King Seiko 45-7001 (Chronometer)
Caliber 45A (Hi-Beat 36,000) – Diameter 36mm – Year 1968 – Dress Watch (King Seiko)
Alongside sports models, some more classically styled Seikos have also performed well. This is the case for the King Seiko 45KS from the late sixties. Designed by the Daini Seikosha division параллельно with Grand Seikos, they feature excellent 36,000 vph calibers. Yet, in 2013, King Seikos were largely underestimated: one could find a beautiful 45-7000 or 45-7001 for ¥10,000 (less than €100), often treated as a simple “old gold-plated watch.” Today, the trend has reversed: the same watch sells for around ¥70,000 (~€490). The CAGR reaches 18%. The liquidity index is around 3/5: these watches remain relatively limited in circulation outside Japan, but the revival of King Seiko by the manufacture in 2022 has piqued curiosity about their ancestors. Admittedly, they don’t (yet) reach the heights of Grand Seikos, but their percentage increase over the period is among the highest. Enough to delight those who snagged one for a song a few years ago!
Seiko 6139-6010 “Bruce Lee”
Caliber 6139 – Diameter 39mm – Year 1970 – Automatic Chronograph
Let’s end this tour of small values with a bang with a watch bearing a big name: the black Seiko 6139 worn by Bruce Lee himself! The actor and martial arts master indeed often wore a black-dialed Seiko chronograph ref. 6139-6010 in the late sixties. For a long time, this detail remained confidential, and the watch was simply considered just another 6139. Around 2013, its price hovered around ¥12,000 (~€90). Since then, the anecdote has surfaced on blogs and forums, creating a craze for “Bruce Lee’s Seiko.” As a result, its median price now peaks around ¥80,000 (~€560). CAGR ~17%. Liquidity 3/5 because not all examples of black 6139s are equal (several variants exist, and only a specific model is nicknamed Bruce Lee). But a photo of the star is enough to make a difference at a sale. Proof, if any were needed, that storytelling can transform a banal chronograph into a highly sought-after cult object.
Don’t miss the Seiko 6139-6010 “Bruce Lee” on Catawiki (rare models and exciting auctions available)
¥200,001 – ¥500,000 / €3,000 – €7,500: 10 Intermediate Collector’s Pieces
Let’s change price categories with watches whose current value is between approximately €3,000 and €7,500. Here, we move up a notch in both prestige and rarity. These ten references often have significant historical importance (first in a series, technical achievement) or were already expensive at the time, which is reflected in their higher entry price in 2013. Despite this, they have managed to significantly multiply their value – even if the growth percentages may seem somewhat lower compared to the previous “small” watches, the appreciation in absolute value is substantial. This intermediate segment is prized by discerning collectors: it includes, for example, the first professional dive watches, legendary motorsport chronographs, or Grand Seikos from the golden era. Liquidity is variable: some are frequently traded on specialized sites, others are more confidential and pass through thematic sales or specialist dealers. Let’s discover them together.
Seiko 6217-8000 “62MAS”
Caliber 6217 – Diameter 37mm – Year 1965 – Automatic Diver 150m
Who would have thought? The 1965 62MAS, Japan’s first dive watch (150m water resistance), sold for ¥13,000 upon release, has become a highly prized collector’s item. For a long time, its value remained modest: around ¥100,000 (~€800) in 2013 for a decent example. But its historical significance – Seiko’s baptism by fire in diving – and its relative rarity (production النفسية over only 3 years) have given it exponential appeal. In 2025, its median price hovers around ¥400,000 (≈ €2,800). CAGR ~13%. The liquidity index is 3/5: the 62MAS is sought after worldwide, but intact examples are becoming rarer (many have had their dials or bezels damaged by salt). What was a basic “tool” has thus entered the ranks of the most respected vintage dive watches, alongside Rolex Submariners and Blancpain Fifty Fathoms from the same era. Such is the belated recognition for this diver with undeniable retro charm.
Your next Seiko 6217-8000 “62MAS” could be on Catawiki (check out rare models and ongoing auctions)
Seiko 6105-8110 “Captain Willard”
Caliber 6105B – Diameter 44mm – Year 1970 – Automatic Diver 150m
Here is Seiko’s legendary dive watch, popularized by the film Apocalypse Now: the 6105-8110, aka “Captain Willard.” An issue watch for some GIs during the Vietnam War, it embodies Seiko’s adventurous heritage. In 2013, despite this pedigree, they could be found for around ¥80,000 (~€600) in good condition – a sum, but far from the military Rolexes of the era. Then its aura steadily grew. In 2025, its median value stands at ¥250,000 (≈ €1,750). A modest CAGR of 10%, but because the rise had already begun before 2013. The liquidity index is a comfortable 5/5: highly prized, this reference sells quickly, especially since Seiko launched a Prospex reissue (SLA033 in 2019) which revived interest in the original. Interestingly, the “Proof/Proof” versions (Water Proof marking on dial and case back) from 1970 and variants with the crown at 4 o’clock without protection (“6105-8000”) share this rise, confirming a strong trend: the craze for historic Seiko dive watches is global.
Grand Seiko 3180 “First”
Caliber 3180 – Diameter 35mm – Year 1960 – Dress Watch (Grand Seiko Chronometer)
In 1960, the first Grand Seiko was released, stamped as a chronometer, the fruit of Seiko’s ambition to match Swiss precision. This Grand Seiko “First” ref. 3180 is a piece of Japanese watchmaking history. In 2013, paradoxically, it remained affordable: around ¥150,000 (€1,200) for a steel example, as only insiders were interested. But as Grand Seiko’s fame grew internationally, collectors turned their attention to this original “grail.” In 2025, its median price flirts with ¥450,000 (≈ €3,150). CAGR ~9%, lower than others, but explained by an already substantial starting price and linear progression. Liquidity index 3/5 as these watches rarely leave Japan (some are even gold or engraved with the emperor’s monogram, thus jealously guarded). Seasoned collectors consider a “3180” to be still missing from most collections, which could further support its future valuation, despite a very niche enthusiast base.
Grand Seiko 4420-9000 “44GS”
Caliber 4420A – Diameter 37mm – Year 1967 – Dress Watch (Grand Seiko Hi-Beat)
Considered one of the most beautiful vintage Grand Seikos, the 44GS (ref. 4420-9000) from 1967 embodies the famous “Grand Seiko Style” with its Zaratsu-polished edges. Featuring a 5Hz high-frequency caliber without date, it was rare and expensive психологии from its launch. In 2013, its price was around ¥200,000 (~€1,600). Twelve years later, it hovers around ¥500,000 (≈ €3,500). A moderate CAGR of about 8%. The liquidity index is only 2/5: very few examples are in circulation, and auctions can skyrocket if the condition is exceptional. Indeed, a 44GS in a complete box reached the equivalent of €7,000 in 2022 on Yahoo! Japan, setting a record for this model. Proof that in the high-end Japanese vintage market, the quest for excellence (and mint pieces) supports prices well beyond the displayed averages. Thus, the 44GS remains an investment for connoisseurs, whose performance is as much due to its historical importance as to its confidential distribution.
Seiko 5719-8992 “Crown Chronograph”
Caliber 5719 – Diameter 38mm – Year 1964 – Manual Monopusher Chronograph
Let’s move on to a choice piece: Seiko’s very first wristwatch chronograph, released for the 1964 Tokyo Olympics. The reference 5719, known as the Crown Chronograph, is a 1-pusher chronograph without a sub-dial (measuring 1 minute via a graduated rotating bezel). It’s a rare model, as it was only produced for a few months. In 2013, one could still find them in Japan for ¥30,000 (~€250), many not working perfectly. But the fervor surrounding Seiko and the Olympics has made these pieces highly desirable. In 2025, every vintage chronograph collector dreams of owning one, pushing the median price to ¥250,000 (≈ €1,750). A stratospheric CAGR of 20%. The liquidity index remains 2/5 as very few examples come to market each year – and they are almost instantly snapped up by museums or Asian collectors. It’s worth noting that an even rarer version, the 5718 with a points counter, was gifted at a golf tournament in 1964: if it ever appeared for sale, its price would undoubtedly shatter records… but it belongs more in the next category.
Grand Seiko 6245-9000 “62GS”
Caliber 6245 – Diameter 36mm – Year 1967 – Dress Watch (Grand Seiko Automatic)
Released in late 1966, the 62GS is the first automatic Grand Seiko and the first without an apparent crown (integrated at 4 o’clock), an innovative design signature. While internally it doesn’t differ greatly from the Seikomatic Chronometers of the era, its dial proudly bearing the Grand Seiko logo makes it a grail for purists. In 2013, a 62GS in good condition was valued around ¥50,000 (~€400). In 2025, expect to pay closer to ¥300,000 (≈ €2,100). CAGR ~16%. Liquidity 2/5 as this specific model is rare, especially in the export version without the “Chronometer” inscription (Seiko had to abandon this term in 1968). The international recognition of Grand Seiko has led collectors to focus on this ancestor, which also attracts with its distinct sixties design. Thus, the 62GS proves that it’s not just sports divers or chronographs in the life of collectible vintage Seikos: elegance is also a recipe for success.
Seiko 6105-8000 “Slim Willard”
Caliber 6105A – Diameter 41mm – Year 1968 – Automatic Diver 150m
Before the 1970 “Willard” 6105-8110 mentioned earlier, there was a first generation of 6105 in 1968-69, reference 6105-8000, recognizable by its rounder case and unprotected crown. Produced for less than 2 years, it is much rarer than the later version. In 2013, its price was comparable (~¥60,000) as few made the distinction. In 2025, it’s a different story: an example of the 6105 “small crown” trades for around ¥300,000 (€2,100), i.e., at the level of a mint late Willard. CAGR ~14%. Liquidity 3/5 because while demand is strong (hardcore collectors wanting “both” 6105s), supply is limited. Each appearance creates a small buzz on specialized forums. Beyond speculation, this watch illustrates how an initially neglected variant can gain value simply through the (re)discovery of its precedence and relative rarity.
Seiko 6306-7001 “Scubapro 450”
Caliber 6306 – Diameter 44mm – Year 1978 – Automatic Diver 150m (special edition)
Among vintage Seiko divers, some limited editions particularly stir up desire. This is the case for the 6306-7001 Scubapro 450. In appearance, it resembles a classic late 1970s Turtle 150m (caliber 6306 with semi-quickset day, reserved for Japan). But its dial bears the “Scubapro” logo – a diving equipment brand – and the inscription 450. Distributed, it seems, in small quantities via a marketing partnership, this variant had flown under the radar. In 2013, it was worth little more than an ordinary Turtle (~¥50,000). Today, it’s a different song: aficionados pay over ¥350,000 (≈ €2,450) for a fine example, making it one of the most expensive vintage Seiko divers. CAGR ~18%. Liquidity Index 1/5 because the Scubapro 450 appears extremely rarely in public sales – most are dormant in Japanese collections. When one does, it’s a frenzy in the Seiko community. So here is a model that outperforms the market through the power of its anecdote and its sudden rarity.
Seiko 7016-5001 “Monaco”
Caliber 7016 – Diameter 38mm – Year 1970 – Automatic Chronograph
Watch enthusiasts are well acquainted with TAG Heuer’s square Monaco. But did you know Seiko had its own “Monaco” watch? The 7016-5001 is an automatic chronograph from 1970 featuring a TV-square case, nicknamed for its resemblance to the Monaco. With its caliber 7016 with column wheel, 12-hour display, and retrograde date, it’s an underappreciated technical marvel. In 2013, they could be found for ¥30,000 (~€250) without too much trouble. But in 2025, the landscape has changed: a fine example hovers around ¥200,000 (≈ €1,400). CAGR ~17%. Liquidity 3/5: the 7016 has its fans (especially in Europe) and enough examples were produced to see them regularly, but they often need to be imported from Japan. Its funky design, long considered outdated, is now trendy, which could well push its value even higher in the coming years, as this chronograph combines style and watchmaking prowess at a price that remains attractive compared to vintage Swiss competitors.
Seiko 5740-8000 “Lord Marvel”
Caliber 5740C – Diameter 35mm – Year 1967 – Dress Watch (Lord Marvel 36000)
Let’s conclude the intermediate category with a more discreet but technically important piece: the Lord Marvel 36000. Released in 1967, it’s the first Japanese high-frequency wristwatch (36,000 vibrations/hour), long before Grand Seiko adopted 36,000 vph in 1968. This modest 3-hand model, initially sold for under ¥10,000, was long neglected. In 2013, a vintage Lord Marvel traded for a maximum of ¥10,000 (~€80). But recognition of Seiko’s contribution to chronometry technologies changed the game: today, an example in good working order is worth around ¥80,000 (≈ €560). CAGR ~19%, worthy of the top of the chart. Liquidity 2/5 as sellers aren’t rushing, but demand is increasing for these small, elegant, and precise Seikos. This spectacular rise shows that it’s not always about “speculative investment”: sometimes, it’s simply renewed interest in a once-forgotten technical innovation that creates value.
> ¥500,000 / > €7,500: 10 Ultra High-End Japanese Grails
Welcome to the holy of holies of collectible vintage Seikos – those whose current prices exceed €7,500 and sometimes reach six-figure sums in yen. Here, value appreciation often goes hand-in-hand with extreme rarity. Several models on this list were unknown 10-15 years ago, or flew under the radar because trades were made privately among insiders. Between 2013 and 2025, these watches literally exploded in value, some benefiting from historical discoveries, auction records, or simply the general elevation of Seiko’s standing among prestige collectors. We find here a mix of the advent of quartz (the 1969 Astron), the most sophisticated Grand Seikos (V.F.A., gold editions), extremely rare chronographs (prototypes or exotics), or even “ultra-pro” dive models long underestimated. The average person may have never heard of them, but among connoisseurs, these references fuel conversations and… bidding wars. Let’s dive into this Japanese pantheon and see how they outperform all others.
Seiko Astron 35SQ (Quartz Astron)
Caliber 35A (quartz) – Diameter 36mm – Year 1969 – Dress Watch (18k gold case)
On December 25, 1969, Seiko made a huge impact by unveiling the Astron 35SQ, the world’s first commercially available quartz watch. Revolutionary, this piece, limited to 100 examples in gold, cost ¥450,000 at its launch (the equivalent of a new Toyota Corolla at the time!). For decades, the Astron remained a museum trophy, almost impossible to find on the market. In 2013, a rare private transaction reportedly valued an example at around ¥1,000,000 (~€8,000), a derisory price considering its importance. This was just the beginning. With the vintage craze and the rediscovery of quartz history, the Astron’s value has multiplied четырехкратно according to estimates: potentially ¥4,000,000 (≈ €28,000) or more in 2025. CAGR ~12%. Liquidity Index 1/5 obviously – 1969 Astrons are either in museums or jealously guarded by a few institutional collectors. The increase in its “replacement value” is mostly theoretical, but the inclusion of this model in the index is fully justified: it’s hard to be more of a game changer in the watch market than the Astron, which literally launched the quartz crisis. And its status as a timeless grail only continues to strengthen.
Seiko 5718-8000 (Chronograph)
Caliber 5718 – Diameter 38mm – Year 1964 – Manual Monopusher Chronograph
Let’s stick with museum pieces with the extremely rare 5718 chronograph. A variant of the Crown Chronograph 5719 mentioned earlier, the 5718 is additionally equipped with a points counter and a date, and was produced in only a few hundred examples solely for sports competitions during the 1964 Olympics (it was never commercially released to the public). Suffice to say that in 2013, the handful of collectors who owned one had no intention of selling it – its value was more historical than market-driven, estimated at around ¥300,000 (~€2,500) for insurance purposes. This is no longer the case: the enthusiasm for collectible Seikos has led some owners to test the market, and in 2020 an example traded for the equivalent of ¥2,000,000 (about €14,000). Potential CAGR of 17%. Liquidity Index 1/5 as there have perhaps been fewer than 10 transactions of this model in 12 years! But each appearance creates an event in the watch community – to the point that some 5718s have left Japan for Western private collections in recent years. A remarkable performance for a watch long mythical and “priceless,” now firmly anchored in the very high-end market.
Seiko 6159-7001 (300m Diver)
Caliber 6159A – Diameter 44mm – Year 1968 – Automatic Diver 300m (Hi-Beat)
Returning to dive watches, it’s hard to overlook the 6159-7001 from 1968. Seiko’s first “Professional” 300m water-resistant watch, equipped with a Hi-Beat 36,000 vph movement derived from Grand Seiko, it foreshadows the performance that would characterize the “Tuna” models a few years later. Produced in very small quantities (from 1968 to 1969 only), it was already expensive when new. On the vintage market, it was long undervalued compared to Swiss competitors of the same era. In 2013, one could find a 6159-7001 for around ¥200,000 (~€1,600). But with the boom in the vintage dive watch market (thanks, Submariner mania) and recognition of its status as a hi-beat pioneer, its value has quadrupled: around ¥800,000 (≈ €5,600) in 2025. CAGR ~12%. Liquidity 3/5 as a few examples appear in sales each year, often incomplete or modified. But the trend is clear: in 2020, a 6159 sold for over $10,000 at Phillips, a record. This model has entered the very exclusive club of “investable” vintage dive watches.
Seiko 6215-7000 (300m Diver)
Caliber 6215 – Diameter 43mm – Year 1967 – Automatic Diver 300m
The immediate predecessor to the 6159 above, the 6215-7000 is Seiko’s very first foray into extreme depths. Released in 1967 and produced for only a few months, it is even rarer than the 6159, lacking a notched bezel and a hi-beat movement (it beats at 19,800 vph). Long seen as an underdeveloped prototype, it was valued around ¥150,000 (~€1,200) in 2013. However, the dive watch boom has also affected this phantom edition: today, a 6215 trades for around ¥800,000 (~€5,600). CAGR ~14%. Liquidity 2/5 as it’s almost impossible to find outside Japan. However, when an example appears, adrenaline runs high among collectors, ready to battle for this missing link. In a way, it’s the most exclusive of vintage Seiko “divers.” Its journey on the watch stock market is proof that a once-ignored model can explode when the prism of rarity and history begins to shine differently.
Grand Seiko 4520-7010 V.F.A.
Caliber 4520 (36,000 A/h) – Diameter 36mm – Year 1970 – Dress Watch (Grand Seiko Very Fine Adjusted)
In the vintage Grand Seiko universe, V.F.A. (Very Fine Adjusted) models are the ultimate grail. These watches, produced from 1969-1971, were regulated to ±2 seconds per day, an absolute pre-quartz feat. The emblematic reference is the 4520-7010 (no date) from 1970, recognizable by its angular case. In 2013, few people were looking for one, and its price hovered around ¥250,000 (~€2,000). But things have changed significantly: today, a 4520 VFA exceeds ¥1,000,000 (> €7,000). CAGR ~12%. Liquidity Index only 2/5, as very few leave Japan, and they often go through specialized dealers to high-end collectors. The turning point was undoubtedly a 2018 sale where a lot of GS VFAs fetched unexpected sums, shining a light on these technical marvels. Since then, their upward curve has not faltered, reflecting Grand Seiko’s elevation to the ranks of globally respected manufactures.
Grand Seiko 6185-8020 (18K)
Caliber 6185 (36,000 A/h) – Diameter 37mm – Year 1973 – Dress Watch (Grand Seiko V.F.A. gold)
Another top-tier Grand Seiko piece: the reference 6185-8020 from 1973. This is an 18k gold V.F.A. day-date, produced in a few dozen examples for Seiko’s wealthiest clients. For a long time, these gold models were melted down or neglected (perceived as “bling” with no additional mechanical interest). Around 2013, if one appeared, its value was essentially determined by its gold weight (~¥500,000). But since then, the desire for VFAs has spilled over to these gold versions, which fetch very high prices. In 2025, a gold 6185 is estimated to trade for around ¥1,500,000 (≈ €10,500) or more, depending on condition. CAGR ~10%. Liquidity 1/5 – many of these gold GSs are in vaults. But recently, one appeared at a Tokyo antique dealer for around €15,000, a sign that the market recognizes its uniqueness. To outperform the market, for this watch, is also to position itself as an alternative to Patek Philippes and other gold pieces of the era, but with the added GS charm.
Seiko 6159-7010 “Grandfather Tuna”
Caliber 6159B – Diameter 51mm – Year 1975 – Automatic Diver 600m (Professional)
Nicknamed “Grandfather Tuna” because it’s the first in the line of Seiko’s famous “Tuna Can” dive watches, the 6159-7010 reference from 1975 is a technological monster for its time: titanium case, 600m saturation diving capability, hi-beat caliber, etc. Surprisingly, it didn’t make much of a splash at its launch (a highly specialized watch for professional divers). On the vintage market, it stagnated around ¥120,000 (~€900) until the early 2010s. Then, as the trend for “large vintage divers” took hold, and the Tuna’s aura grew (Seiko continues to produce versions), the 6159-7010 saw its price jump to around ¥500,000 (≈ €3,500) in 2025. CAGR ~13%. Liquidity 2/5 as there are ultimately few in circulation (very limited production from 1975 to 1978). But every piece put up for sale finds a buyer almost immediately. Its 12-year progression is impressive, and it’s not impossible that it will go even further as enthusiasm for historic Seiko “Tunas” is on the rise (some quartz variants from the 80s are also starting to appreciate).
Grand Seiko 6145-8000 “Special”
Caliber 6145 (36,000 A/h) – Diameter 37mm – Year 1969 – Dress Watch (Grand Seiko Special)
Before VFAs, Seiko offered “Special” Grand Seikos adjusted to ±4 seconds/day, a step above standard GS models. The 6145-8000 reference from 1969 is a striking example: massive 37mm case, high-frequency 6145B caliber with date. In 2013, little distinction was made between a GS Special and a regular one – both hovered around ¥100,000 (~€800). In 2025, a Special model is valued around ¥600,000 (~€4,200), significantly more than a classic 61GS (~¥250k). CAGR ~16%. The liquidity index is 2/5: GS Specials remain rare (a few thousand examples at most) and those in good condition often sell психологии upon announcement. One can see a niche phenomenon here: collectors seeking to have it all from GS absolutely want a Special in addition to VFAs and older “Chronometers,” which boosts demand for a fixed supply. This is typically the kind of watch that outperforms due to the actions of informed collectors, not mainstream fashion trends.
Seiko 4520-7020 “Observatory Chronometer”
Caliber 4520 (36,000 A/h) – Diameter 35mm – Year 1968 – Dress Watch (Competition Chronometer)
Let’s finish in style with an almost legendary piece: the Seiko Observatory Chronometer. These are watches produced in about fifty examples by Daini Seikosha in 1968, equipped with specially hand-picked calibers to compete in the Neuchâtel and Geneva chronometry trials (competitions Seiko won in the pocket chronometer category that year). These watches, recognized by an Observatory certificate, were sold in Japan to a privileged few. Suffice to say, no market price existed in 2013 – a theoretical insurance value of ¥300,000 (~€2,500) was assigned. However, in 2018, one of these rarities appeared in a private sale and traded for around ¥1,500,000 (~€10,500). CAGR ~14%. Liquidity 1/5 unsurprisingly – this is the kind of watch you almost never see, and whose value is determined by a micro-ecosystem of major collectors. Nevertheless, its existence and price reach an almost mythical dimension, and contribute to Seiko’s growing prestige in the very high-end collector’s market. To outperform the market, for this kind of object, is literally to transcend it: we are no longer in commerce, we are in history.
Analysis: The Performance Drivers of Vintage Seikos
In light of these 30 models and their trajectories, several key factors can be identified to explain the outperformance of vintage Seikos on the secondary market:
- Intrinsic Rarity: This is the most obvious driver. Many watches in the index owe their surge to limited initial production (5718 chronographs, GS VFAs, Scubapro editions…) or low survival rates in good condition. This rarity, combined with rising demand, creates price tension. Thus, a watch like the 5718 remained “priceless” until enough collectors showed interest. Now that this has happened, its value is soaring sustainably.
- Storytelling and History: A watch that tells a story sells a dream, and sees its value pulled upwards. The “Pogue” in space or the “Willard” in Vietnam are typical examples. As long as their stories were unknown, these watches sold for scrap value. But once their narratives were disseminated (through articles, films, forums), they became cult items. The “Bruce Lee’s 6139” phenomenon is another illustration. Furthermore, Seiko’s internal history – participation in chronometry competitions, technical innovations – is beginning to be known outside Japan and further enhances the value of flagship models (Astron 35SQ, Observatory chronometers, hi-beat…).
- Accessibility and Base Effect: Some Seikos outperformed simply because they started from a very low base. The 6138/6139 chronos are an example: when you buy a watch for €50 in 2010 and it goes to €500 in 2025, the ratio is enormous (+1000%). This low base effect results in impressive CAGRs, impossible to replicate for Rolex or Omega watches that were already expensive 10 years ago. The corollary is that these watches remain “affordable” in absolute terms, which broadens their buyer base and fuels the rise.
- The Rise of “Made in Japan”: More broadly, the valuation of vintage Seikos goes hand-in-hand with the brand’s repositioning and the recognition of Japanese watchmaking. Grand Seiko became a luxury brand in its own right in the 2010s, sparking retrospective interest in its historical models. Similarly, the emergence of Seiko fan communities (Seikoholics, #seikonation on Instagram, etc.) has created global enthusiasm. The record auctions mentioned (modern Grand Seiko “Kodo” sold for $478,000:contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}, museum Astron estimated at +$50,000, etc.) also served as a signal: yes, Japanese timepieces can be worth as much as Swiss or German ones. This change in perception benefits the entire Japanese vintage segment, which until recently started with a huge discount compared to European equivalents.
- Fashion Effect and Range Phenomenon: Finally, note the “collection” effect within Seiko. When one model starts to rise, it sometimes pulls related references along with it. For example, the hype around the 62MAS spilled over to other seventies divers (6105, 6306…). The success of the 6138-8020 Panda gave visibility to other 6138s (Bullhead, Kakume). It’s a virtuous cycle for Seiko: its rich history offers many “schools of fish” that rise together.
By combining these factors, we can better understand why vintage Seikos, as a whole, have offered growth superior to many other segments of collectible watchmaking since 2013. They started from far behind and have closed some of the recognition gap. Some references have even crossed a symbolic threshold – for example, seeing a “Pogue” trade above €1000 may seem unreasonable to those who remember buying one for €100 15 years ago… But the market works this way: it rediscovers, it re-evaluates. Of course, nothing is linear or guaranteed, and one must guard against excessive optimism for the future. Let’s now look at the limits and potential risks associated with this euphoria over vintage Seikos.
Box – Risks & Exits: What to Keep in Mind
In conclusion, the 2025 Vintage Seiko Index clearly shows that the Japanese brand has earned its stripes on the secondary market. Watches once sold as simple utilitarian tools now rival, in price and prestige, Swiss timepieces with pedigree. The 30 models presented here testify to the diversity and richness of Seiko’s history – but they are not the only ones. There would still be so much to say about other references (to name a few: the first Seiko “Laurel” models from the 1910s, military-issue 7A28 chronographs, 1000m “Golden Tuna” quartz dive models, etc.). Let’s bet that the 2030 edition of the Vintage Seiko Index will still hold its share of surprises, as watchmaking passions for “Made in Japan” seem to be on a beautiful trajectory. In short, if you own one of these little marvels at the bottom of a drawer, rejoice: it may already be outperforming the secondary market – and it may not be over yet!
Pour bien s'habiller, il faut comprendre le vêtement, mais aussi la marque et sa stratégie.